We need to acknowledge the fact that the Disease is spreading rapidly
across West Africa; more than 3,400 people dead and 7,500 infected
The first case was confirmed in the United States last week
114 people came into contact with him before he was diagnosed
Scientists believe an infected person will arrive in the UK before October 24
Estimate a 75% chance of the virus reaching France in that time
Belgium has a 40% chance of the disease reaching its shores, while Spain and
Switzerland have lower risks, at 14% each
Professor
Alessandro Vespignani of Northeastern University in Boston, who led the
research, said: 'This is not a deterministic list, it's about
probabilities – but those probabilities are growing for everyone.
'It's just a matter of who gets lucky and who gets unlucky.
'Air traffic is the driver.
'But
there are also differences in connections with the affected countries
(Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone), as well as different numbers of
cases in these three countries - so depending on that, the probability
numbers change.'
Dr Derek Gatherer, of Lancaster University, an expert in viruses who has been tracking the epidemic, said: 'It's really a lottery.
'If this thing continues to rage on in West Africa and indeed gets worse, as some people have predicted, then it's only a matter of time before one of these cases ends up on a plane to Europe.'
Nigeria, Senegal and the U.S. - where the first case was diagnosed on Tuesday - have all seen people carrying the haemorrhagic fever virus, apparently unwittingly, arrive on their shores.
Global threat of Ebola: From the US to China, scientists plot spread of deadly disease across the world from its West African hotbed
By Ben Spencer, Daily Mail Science Reporter and Lizzie Parry for MailOnline
23:54 05 Oct 2014, updated 14:15 06 Oct 2014
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Disease spreading rapidly across West Africa; more than 3,400 people dead and 7,500 infected
The first case was confirmed in the United States last week
114 people came into contact with him before he was diagnosed
Scientists believe an infected person will arrive in the UK before October 24
Estimate a 75% chance of the virus reaching France in that time
Belgium has a 40% chance of the disease reaching its shores, while Spain and Switzerland have lower risks, at 14% each
The deadly Ebola virus could spread across the world infecting people from the U.S. to China within three weeks, scientists have warned.
There is a 50 per cent chance a traveller carrying the disease could touch down in the UK by October 24, a team of U.S. researchers have predicted.
Using Ebola spread patterns and airline traffic data they have calculated the odds of the virus spreading across the world.
They estimate there is a 75 per cent chance Ebola will reach French shores by October 24.
And Belgium has a 40 per cent chance of seeing the disease arrive on its territory, while Spain and Switzerland have lower risks of 14 per cent each.
The virus is spreading rapidly across West Africa, with more than 3,400 people known to have died and 7,500 infected.
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A team of scientists at Northeastern University in Boston have used air travel information to predict where the deadly Ebola virus could reach in the next three weeks
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Scientists predicted there is a 50 per cent chance the Ebola virus will reach the UK and a 75 per cent chance it will reach France by October 24
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The disease is spreading rapidly across West Africa, with more than 3,400 people known to have died and 7,500 infected
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Using Ebola spread patterns and airline traffic data a team of U.S. scientists have calculated the odds of the virus spreading across the world. Volunteers in Monrovia, Liberia are pictured carrying a man, suspected of having the virus, to a health centre in the capital
The numbers are based on air travel remaining at full capacity, and are being constantly updated by the researchers, who last reviewed the figures based on data from October 1.
But assuming there is an 80 per cent reduction in travel to reflect that many airlines are halting flights to affected regions, the scientists predict France's risk is still 25 per cent, and the UK's is 15 per cent.
But the researchers, whose work is published in the journal PLOS, said the risks change every day the epidemic continues.
MORE...
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Doomsday warning: UN Ebola chief raises 'nightmare' prospect that virus could mutate and become airborne - making it much more infectious
Ebola victim told ER nurse he had been in African outbreak zone - but was sent home with antibiotics for a 'low grade virus' TWO days before he was finally quarantined
Professor Alessandro Vespignani of Northeastern University in Boston, who led the research, said: 'This is not a deterministic list, it's about probabilities – but those probabilities are growing for everyone.
'It's just a matter of who gets lucky and who gets unlucky.
'Air traffic is the driver.
'But there are also differences in connections with the affected countries (Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone), as well as different numbers of cases in these three countries - so depending on that, the probability numbers change.'
Dr Derek Gatherer, of Lancaster University, an expert in viruses who has been tracking the epidemic, said: 'It's really a lottery.
'If this thing continues to rage on in West Africa and indeed gets worse, as some people have predicted, then it's only a matter of time before one of these cases ends up on a plane to Europe.'
Nigeria, Senegal and the U.S. - where the first case was diagnosed on Tuesday - have all seen people carrying the haemorrhagic fever virus, apparently unwittingly, arrive on their shores.
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Experts warn the virus could also reach Belgium, Spain and Switzerland within the next three weeks
UN's Ban Ki-moon calls for unity to tackle Ebola crisis (related)
France is among the countries deemed most likely to be hit next, because the worst affected countries include Guinea, a French-speaking country with busy travel links back.
Britain lies dangerously in the path of the virus, due to Heathrow's status as one of the world's biggest travel hubs, with frequent links to Nigeria.
The researchers at Northeastern University, in Boston, calculated the countries most at risk in the short term, are:
Ghana
UK
Nigeria
Gambia
Ivory Coast
Belgium
France
Senegal
Morocco
Mali
Mauritiania
Guinea Bissau
U.S.
Germany
South Africa
Kenya
May God Deliver us from this Global Life threatening Virus
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